Weather prediction and Climate Projection

My own research has focussed on modelling over a wide range of spatial scales, from idealized simulations of the tropical climate in a state of radiative-convective equilibrium using high resolution cloud resolving models, to global modelling studies of the climate and its predictability. I have suggested a new thermodynamic theory of the way coldpools organise tropical deep convection in situations of low vertical wind shear, as well as being a early proposer of the role of water vapour structures in convective organisation.

Parameterization in climate and NWP models

Some of my research has examined the representation of sub-gridscale processes in large-scale models, such as clouds and convection and their interaction with radiation. I developed a PDF-based parametrization scheme for cloud cover that was implemented in the ECHAM5 climate model. In addition I developed a parameterization for ice supersaturation for the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) in 2005, and in 2007 implemented a prognostic 5-phase microphysics scheme into the ECMWF IFS, which went operational in 2010 after further development by my successor at the centre. I have also developed parameterizations for the improved treatment of cloud overlap in radiation schemes accounting for solar zenith ange and wind shear effects, as well as simplified cloud schemes for use in variational data assimilation systems.

Climate Applications In Health

A new research topic I have entered since 2010, I am interested in the ways in which climate and atmospheric research can contribute to improvements in society in developing countries, namely in their application for agriculture, hydrology and health. In particular I have taken up malaria as a key application in the health sphere in Africa, and have developed the new VECTRI dynamcial model for malaria which is a spatially explicit detailed model for malaria transmission that accounts for population density and climate. The model is open source and has been downloaded by the following institutions: For more details see my VECTRI Pages

Migra tion

Another recent area of activity, I have developed an agent based model of cyclic population mobility, which has parameter settings specified from a mobile phone mobility dataset. The model is presently being coupled to a simple social and economic modelling framework to incorporate urbanisation trends as well as potential migration shocks in response to climate events such as droughts and floods. Coupling to extended-VECTRI will also allow explicit modelling of migration impacts on disease transmission in a dynamical mathematical model. .0

Thunderstorm over Venice


predicts convective clustering onset in a simplified model of radiative-convection equilibrium! Be the first to read all about it in this new article submitted to JAMES (click).

Climate Unboxed

My new hobby in my free time is to upload videos on various topics related to weather and climate on my new YouTube channel climate unboxed. At the moment there are only my initial videos on climate data processing that I am developing for a new joint EDX course with the UNESCO regional office in Zimbabwe, but I hope to supplement these with more general interest material over the coming year. Don't forget to subscribe for news on new uploads.

Google Scholar Page

ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-0975-6691

Page compiled 03-02-2023