Malaria has distinct environmental drivers. Rainfall defines the transmission season by provided breeding sites for the mosquitoes that are the vectors of the disease, while temperature impacts both the vector larva and adult lifecycles. Many other environmental factors play a role, from soil type and terrain topography which affect the surface hydrology, as well as the land cover type. Socio-economic factors should not be neglected. Interventions can depress transmission or eradicate it altogether in a region, but population migration can reintroduce the disease. Understanding what drives malaria transmission in this complex web of factors could be aided by accurate models of the disease transmission that operate over regional scales.
VECTRI Malaria Model
VECTRI is a mathematic dynamical model for malaria transmission that accounts for the impact of climate variability and population. It was written in the early period of 2011 and officially launched at the second workshop for East Africa Climate and impacts at the university of Addis Ababa in November 2011. The underlying aim of the model is to provide a research tool to understand what drives malaria transmission that can be applied on a regional scale but at spatial resolutions of 10km or less.
What is new in VECTRI?
VECTRI attempts to incorporate a simple but physically based
treatment of surface hydrology, and more importantly it
accounts for the population density when calculating biting
rates and transmission probabilities. This is important,
since it allows the model to represent the difference in
transmission rates between rural and peri-urban locations.
Moreover, the link to population means that the model can be
actively developed to incorporate immunity, migration,
socioeconomic status, urbanisation and interventions. It does
this in a framework that allows regional or even