| Date | Speaker | Title / Abstract |
|---|---|---|
| 13 January | Maria Shabir 📄 Presentation |
Energy innovation and ecological footprint: Evidence from OECD countries during 1990–2018 see more... |
| Recent developments in energy engineering and state-of-the art technologies to increase eco-friendly energy production are receiving increasing attention in scientific debate as engines of growth. Although the energy-growth-environment nexus has been extensively studied, the ecological implications of innovative technologies in energy production are yet to be adequately addressed to provide adhoc social changes and policy perspectives. To bridge these gaps, the present study investigates the relationship between energy innovation (EIN), renewable energy production (REP), non-renewable energy production (NREP), energy intensity (EI), research and development (R&D) expenditures, GDP, and ecological footprint (EF) in 21 OECD economies during the period 1990–2018. This study applies advanced, rigorous, and robust econometric methodologies. The empirical outcomes reveal that REP, EIN, and EI, mitigate EF, while NREP, GDP, and R&D somehow accelerate the ecological deficit. This study advances the empirically proven validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for OECD countries and provides valuable policy insights in terms of intensification of governmental budget spending on R&D, and boosting technological energy innovations and non-polluting energy projects. Of particular importance to trace a green energy growth is the development of comprehensive economic and energy policies with a specific focus on ecological wellbeing. | ||
| 20 January | Antonio Salinas 📄 Presentation |
Diagnosis of the atmospheric conditions associated with the arrival of sargassum to the coasts of Quintana Roo, Mexico see more... |
| The massive arrival of sargassum is generating environmental, social, and economic impacts on the Mexican coasts of the Caribbean Sea. This seaweed is transported by floating across the Atlantic Ocean under the combined effects of wind and surface ocean circulation. A diagnosis of the variability of atmospheric circulations in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea will be presented, identifying the conditions under which sargassum arrives on the coasts of Quintana Roo (Mexico), where the most popular tourist resort in the region is located: Cancun. Thirty years of surface wind data (1989 to 2018) from NCAR's CFRS (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) over the Atlantic and Caribbean were analyzed, dividing the region into six areas. For each area, its seasonal, annual and interannual variability was estimated, as well as its extreme values and its correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO). According to the results, atmospheric conditions for transporting sargassum to the coasts of Quintana Roo coasts are more favorable in summer than in winter. Additionally, the 90th percentile of surface wind in the Caribbean Sea favors sargassum transport in both winter and summer, however, “connectivity” with other regions (the central Atlantic) makes sargassum transport more favorable in summer, highlighting the role of the Caribbean low-level jet, which has two relative maxima: the first in February and the second in July. As case studies, atmospheric conditions were analyzed for two years identified as extreme: 2015 and 2018, for both summer and winter. | ||
| 27 January | Dargan Frierson 📄 Presentation |
Past Perfect, Future Imperfect? Biases in Reduced Complexity Climate Models tuned to the historical record see more... |
| Some of the most important decisions about the future regarding climate and energy policy are decided on the basis of results from reduced complexity climate models (RCMs), which take emissions of pollutants and calculate global average temperature. RCMs are tuned from comprehensive Earth Systems Models (ESMs), but use very simple equations. They've also received relatively little scrutiny in the scientific literature. We study one particular RCM called "fair," which was used in recent IPCC reports to estimate the remaining carbon budget to keep warming under 1.5 or 2 C. Although fair is constrained to essentially exactly reproduce current CO2 concentrations, we show that it underestimates future CO2 concentrations significantly compared with the models to which it is tuned. We provide an explanation and discuss implications for RCM development and ESM experimental design. We additionally discuss how simple models can be used to allow students to simulate their own climate and energy futures, including those based in climate justice. | ||
| 03 February | Marco Reale 📄 Presentation |
From Convection-permitting coupled modeling to large scale circulation and carbon sink in the Mediterranean Sea: a small journey with a lot of great friends see more... |
| In this 30-40 minutes talk I will summarize the research that I carried out in the last two years in collaboration with colleagues (and friends) from OGS and ICTP In particular I will describe: 1. The development and testing of newly Convection-Permitting configuration of Regional Earth System Model RegCM-ES over the Northern Italy; 2. The analysis of link between SST variability in the Indian Ocean measured by the IOD index and synoptic activity over the Euro-Mediterranean region; 3. The Links between CO2 sink in the Mediterranean Sea in winter and synoptic systems crossing the area. | ||
| 10 February | Laurel DiSera 📄 Presentation |
Fueling the 2020-2023 La Niña: The Role of Cross-timescale Interference between the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Madden-Julian Oscillation see more... |
| Prior work suggests that the 2020-2023 three-year long La Niña event was triggered by the combination of a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event that began in 2019 and a strong Atlantic Niño; however, it is unclear what caused the positive IOD event. This analysis suggests that cross-timescale interference between the IOD and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) contributed to the generation of this positive IOD event, with interactions occurring in two stages. First, during late April 2019, strong winds associated with MJO phases 2 and 3, and the related formation of two twin tropical cyclones, produced downwelling Kelvin waves in the Indian Ocean that propagated to the western coast of Java and Sumatra and reflected to the west as downwelling Rossby waves, subsequently deepening the thermocline in the eastern basin, and impacting the IOD state. Subsequently, a second MJO phase 2 and 3 event created additional westward propagating downwelling Rossby waves that depressed the thermocline in the western basin, allowing for the progression of anomalous positive sea-surface temperature anomalies towards the west that triggered the strong positive IOD event. Based on these findings, and results from a linear wave model analysis, this study concludes that through cross-timescale interference, the MJO preconditioned the positive IOD state during the first MJO event and triggered the strong positive IOD event during the second MJO occurrence. These combined mechanisms acted as a catalyst contributing to the formation of the positive IOD event in 2019 that preceded the three-year long La Niña event. | ||
| 24 February | Mamadou Thiam 📄 Presentation |
Coupling SST-Surface wind and intraseasonal to seasonal variability in West African Monsoon System see more... |
| Summer rainfall in the Sahel is primarily generated by mesoscale convective systems that form over the eastern part of the continent and propagate westward, favored by the African Easterly Jet (AEJ). The moisture supply required for these precipitations is mainly provided in the lower troposphere by the monsoon flow, as well as by a westerly flux from the eastern Atlantic, which exhibits strong intraseasonal and longer-term variability. Although the large-scale influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the West African monsoon has been widely studied through global teleconnections, the specific impact of the tropical North Atlantic on Sahelian rainfall remains insufficiently explored. In this study, we investigate air–sea interactions in the tropical North Atlantic at the intraseasonal timescale, focusing on the feedback between SST and surface winds. To this end, we use observational datasets (Reynolds SST, ASCAT winds) and ERA5 reanalysis data, applying linear statistical methods. Our results show that trade wind anomalies, often associated with African Easterly Waves, modulate SST and generate a negative feedback loop that persists for about two to three weeks. A secondary feedback induces a slow northward migration of SST and associated pressure anomalies. This mechanism likely influences the northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and consequently affects intraseasonal to seasonal rainfall over the western Sahel. | ||
| 10 March | Luiza Vargas-Heinz | Impact of high resolution convection permitting climate projections on the description of the hydrological cycle over Italian rivers and the added value of improved land surface and hydrology in the two-way regional model coupled system. see more... |
| This work investigates the evolution of the hydrological cycle under climate change through high-resolution hydro-climate modelling. By improving model resolution and coupling strategies, it aims to enhance the representation of river discharge in time and space. Understanding present and future hydrological behaviour is essential for anticipating climate impacts and guiding water-resource adaptation strategies. Two complementary approaches were followed. In the first one , the hydrological model CHyM was driven by an ensemble of kilometre-scale convection-permitting (CP) simulations (∼3 km) that has recently become available, enabling explicit representation of convective processes in complex topography. Two CHyM configurations were tested, using as forcing either temperature and precipitation or runoff, and validated against observed river discharge. High-resolution simulations reproduced discharge more accurately compared to lower-resolution one driven by Euro-CORDEX and CMIP5 ensembles. Projections for the mid and end of the century under the RCP8.5 scenario revealed an intensification of extremes, with flood proxies increasing by up to 60 % and drought proxies decreasing by up to 50 %. Mean discharge declined over most of Italy, mainly driven by average precipitation change but modulated by extreme spring and summer precipitation. The Alpine region shows a shift in discharge seasonality, with decreased snow accumulation and earlier snow melt under climate change. Model uncertainty in the high resolution ensemble of hydrological simulations, decreased up to a factor of five, confirming the importance of high-resolution modelling for reliable discharge projections. The second approach focused on model development, updating the coupling scheme of the regional climate model RegCM5.0 to include the land-surface model CLM5.0. RegCM5.0 uses CLM4.5 as the standard land-surface scheme, and several structural adjustments were made to ensure compatibility between RegCM5.0 and CLM5.0. The update land-surface scheme includes among its advances the physically based river-routing module MOSART, allowing direct computation of discharge within coupled climate simulations. Offline and preliminary coupled experiments demonstrated realistic discharge behaviour comparable to RegCM driven CHyM results, though longer coupled simulations and further evaluation is still needed. These developments establish the foundation for future fully coupled hydro-climate simulations. To illustrate the real-world impact of reliable discharge projections, hydrological simulations were used for a climate change attribution study looking at the record-breaking 2024 floods in southern Brazil. Using local station data, ERA5 reanalysis, 3 climate models ensemble and CHyM simulations, both statistical and analogue-based attribution protocols confirm the role of climate change in strengthening the intensity and frequency of the event. According to the statistical framework, events of comparable magnitude have become significantly more likely in present day climate by a factor of eight for precipitation and 1.7 for discharge. Model based analyses further indicated consistent intensification of precipitation and river discharge at global warming levels above 1.5 °C. Overall, this work advances hydro-climate modelling by demonstrating the added value of kilometre-scale resolution and improved land-surface representation for simulating river discharge and extreme events. It provides methodological and technical progress toward enhanced hydrological and climate modelling and highlights on how improved hydrological projections can inform climate-change attribution studies. | ||
| 17 March | Riccardo Farneti | The Antarctic Ice Sheet and the AMOC: an idealized study of interhemispheric transient responses see more... |
| Mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is projected to continue and accelerate over the coming century. However, current state-of-the-art climate models typically do not include an ice sheet component, and the impact of ice sheet melt has often been studied by injecting meltwater at the model ocean surface along the Antarctic (or Greenland) coast. The additional freshwater input from AIS melting is expected to impact significantly both Southern Ocean dynamics as well as the global climate system. Could the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation be affected? Here, I will focus on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) changes and stability. Data from the Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative, and a suit of sensitivity experiments with variable freshwater forcing, will be used to assess the transient response of the AMOC, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Many efforts have been devoted to studying the AMOC stability to freshwater release in the North Atlantic due to Greenland ice sheet melting. I will show that, subject to plausible values of future AIS mass loss and convergence of freshwater into the Atlantic basin, the AMOC can undergo significant weakening within a century, preceded by an initial strengthening period. Changes to Antarctic Bottom water formation, Antarctic Circumpolar Current and interior stratification will also be assessed and related to the AMOC strength under varying AIS freshwater forcing. | ||
| 24 March | Valentina Blasone | Soon see more... |
| Soon | ||
| 31 March | Deborah Osei-Tutu | Soon see more... |
| Soon | ||
| 07 April | Tang Mingyue | Soon see more... |
| 21 April | Adrian Tompkins | Soon see more... |
| Soon | ||
| 05 May | Graziela Luzia da Costa | Soon see more... |
| Soon | ||
| 19 May | Tapajyoti Chakraborty | Soon see more... |
| Soon | ||
| 02 June | Tapajyoti Chakraborty | Soon see more... |
| Soon | ||