PROMISE
PRedictability and variability Of Monsoons,
and the agricultural and hydrological
ImpactS of climatE change
Coordinators :
Julia Slingo, Univ. of Reading (Lead coordinator)
Franco Molteni, ICTP
Chris Thorncroft, Univ. of Reading
(updated 6 October 1999)
Summary
PROMISE is an interdisciplinary project which aims to address two key issues for
monsoon-affected countries:
(i) The potential for seasonal prediction and the benefits that would accrue in terms
of the management of water resources and agriculture.
(ii) The impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical countries, in particular on
the availability of water resources for human use, and on the productivity of crops and
the potential changes in the natural vegetation.
A particular aim of PROMISE is to develop an integrated approach towards seasonal and
climate change prediction in which the impacts on local hydrology and agriculture are part
of the prediction process. A key objective of PROMISE is the development of pro-active links
with scientists from monsoon-affected countries.
PROMISE has three main science themes:
(i) Natural variability and predictability of current monsoon climates on seasonal,
interannual and interdecadal timescales.
(ii) Assessment of anthropogenic climate change scenarios for monsoon climates.
(iii) Impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on ground hydrology and agricultural systems.
The research exploits existing or planned numerical simulations on seasonal and climate timescales
and will undertake process studies through experimentation with global and high resolution regional
models, with special reference to land surface processes and the impacts of land use changes.
Models of crop development /productivity, ground hydrology and water balance in large river
catchments will be developed and tested with atmospheric reanalyses and model output.
In addition to developing the science base, a key objective of PROMISE is the establishment
of a significant programme of collaboration with scientists and users of PROMISE-related research
in monsoon-affected countries. The participation of scientists from these countries will be
extremely beneficial in a number of areas, particularly in the validation of numerical
simulations with local observations and in the development of transfer models for hydrology
and agricultural studies. In order to improve the exchange of results between research
institutions in European and extra-European countries, and between scientists with expertise
on climatology, hydrology and agricultural resources, PROMISE will establish an easily
accessible database with selected results from numerical simulations and observational
datasets on atmospheric, hydrological and agricultural parameters.
Project description
Partners' contributions
PROMISE research and cooperation activities at ICTP-PWC
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