 The Lorenz attractor, by KNMI Predictability Division |
Conference on:
Local director/organizer: Franco Molteni (moltenif@ictp.trieste.it) |
Abstracts from invited speakers
Preliminary programme (updated: 19 Sep.)
| Tuesday 26 September | ||
| 8.30 - 9.15 | . | Registration |
| 9.15 - 9.30 | F. Molteni | Welcome & Introduction |
| . | Session I | Regimes and non-linearity in extratropical and global dynamics |
| 9.30 - 10.30 | M. Ghil | Intrinsic variability of the mid-latitude oceans: A new source of climate variability? |
| 10.30 - 10.55 | D. Stephenson | Some new ways for probing the complexity of climate |
| 10.55 - 11.15 | . | Coffee break |
| 11.15 - 12.15 | J. Marshall | Observations and models of atmosphere-ocean coupling in the North Atlantic |
| 12.15 - 12.40 | D. Handorf | Decadal climate variability in a hierarchy of climate models |
| 12.40 - 14.15 | . | Lunch break |
| 14.15 - 15.15 | A. Sutera | Baroclinic adjustment theories. |
| 15.15 - 15.40 | D.M Sonechkin | Synchroneity in low-frequency planetary wave motions and a quasi-synchronous model for monthly weather forecasting |
| 15.40 - 16.00 | . | Coffee break |
| 16.00 - 17.00 | R. Vautard | Dimensionality, predictability and assimilation of weather: some theoretical aspects |
| 17.00 - 17.25 | A. Young | Volcanic aerosol forcing of atmospheric regimes of variability |
| 17.25 - 17.45 | . | Poster presentations
(Gordov, Halenka, Pavan, Pelino) |
| 19.00 | . | Reception at Adriatico G.H. |
| Wednesday 27 September | ||
| . | Session I (cont.) | Regimes and non-linearity in extratropical and global dynamics |
| 9.00 - 9.25 | P. Ruti | North Atlantic Oscillation and annular mode: paradigms and phenomena |
| 9.25 - 9.50 | R. Bojariu | Regional climate predictability related to North Atlantic Oscillation |
| 9.50 - 10.50 | F. Molteni | Interannual and interdecadal variations in the properties of atmospheric flow regimes: evidence and dynamical interpretations. |
| 10.50 - 11.15 | . | Coffee break |
| 11.15 - 12.15 | J. Fyfe | A regime view of northern hemisphere atmospheric variability and change under global warming |
| 12.15 - 12.40 | A. Monahan | The Preferred Structure of Variability of the Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation |
| 12.40 - 14.15 | . | Lunch break |
| 14.15 - 14.40 | S. Corti | Vertical structure of weather regimes and their role in climate change |
| 14.40 - 15.05 | J.D. Berner | Regime signatures in the phase-space tendencies and PDF of an AGCM |
| 15.05 - 15.30 | R.V. Bekryaev | Spatial Patterns of Natural Variability and Structure of the Anthropogenic Air Surface Temperature Variations |
| 15.30 - 15.50 | . | Coffee break |
| 15.50 - 16.50 | J. Derome | The role of non-linearities in the atmospheric response to SST anomalies |
| . | Session II | Scale interactions and non-linearity in the tropical climate |
| 16.50 - 17.15 | A. Timmermann | Decadal ENSO Amplitude Modulations and the Stability of ENSO |
| 17.15 - 17.35 | . | Poster presentations
(Ajaya Mohan, Jovanovic, Zavala-Garay) |
| Thursday 28 September | ||
| . | Session II (cont.) | Scale interactions and non-linearity in the tropical climate |
| 9.00 - 10.00 | J. Shukla | Relationship Between Interannual and Intraseasonal Variabilities |
| 10.00 - 10.25 | U. Merkel | Global ENSO impacts as simulated by a high resolution atmospheric GCM |
| 10.25 - 10.45 | . | Coffee break |
| 10.45 - 11.45 | J. Slingo | Non-linear aspects of tropical climate prediction |
| 11.45 - 12.10 | S.K. Mandke | Role of SST and internal dynamics in Interannual variability of Indian Summer Monsoon simulated by GCM |
| 12.10 - 12.35 | J.R. Kulkarni | Of All-India Summer Monsoon rainfall as revealed by a GCM study |
| 12.35 - 14.15 | . | Lunch break |
| 14.15 - 15.15 | G. Philander | El Nino: Bridging measurements and theories |
| 15.15 - 15.40 | W. Qian | An Analysis of the ENSO Cycle Associated with the Equatorial Tropospheric Zonal Wind Anomalies over the Pacific Basin |
| 15.40 - 16.00 | . | Coffee break |
| 16.00 - 17.00 | E. Tziperman | Predictability of the chaotic ENSO: the growth-phase predictability barrier |
| 17.00 - 17.25 | N. Singh | Predicting southwest and northeast monsoon rainfall across India in the changing global environment |
| Friday 29 September | ||
| . | Session III | Systematic errors of GCMs and the impact of forcing perturbations |
| 9.00 - 10.00 | J. Tribbia | Systematic errors and response to anomalous forcing in GCMs (P) | 10.00 - 11.00 | E. Kaas | Non-linear processes and systematic atmospheric model errors |
| 11.00 - 11.20 | . | Coffee break |
| 11.20 - 11.45 | F. Selten | Sensitivity of the statistics of the dominant circulation structures to changes in the forcing |
| 11.45 - 12.45 | T. Palmer | A Nonlinear Dynamical Perspective on Model Error: a Proposal for Nonlocal Stochastic-Dynamic Parametrisation in Weather and Climate Prediction Models |
| 12.45 - 14.15 | . | Lunch break |
| 14.15 - 16.15 | Discussion Chairman: S. Tibaldi |
Summary of issues from Session I (J. Tribbia) Summary of issues from Session II (T.N. Palmer) Summary of issues from Session III (F. Molteni) |
Links to ...
The home page of the Physics of Weather and Climate GroupThe home page of the Abdus Salam ICTP