1. Molteni, F., P. Bonelli and P. Bacci, 1983: Precipitation over northern Italy: a description by means of principal component analysis. J.Clim.Appl.Met., 22, 1738-1752.

2. Tronci, N., F. Molteni and M. Bozzini, 1986: A comparison of local approximation methods for the analysis of meteorological data. Arch.Meteor.Geophys.Biocl., 36B, 189-211.

3. Molteni, F., A. Sutera and N. Tronci, 1988: The EOFs of the geopotential eddies at 500 mb in winter and their probability density distributions. J.Atmos.Sci., 45, 3063-3080.

4. Brankovic, C., T.N. Palmer, F. Molteni, S. Tibaldi and U. Cubasch, 1990: Extended-range predictions with ECMWF models: Time-lagged ensemble forecasting. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 116, 867-912.

5. Ferranti, L., T.N. Palmer, F. Molteni and E. Klinker, 1990: Tropical-extratropical interaction associated with the 30-60 day oscillation and its impact on medium and extended range predictions. J.Atmos.Sci., 47, 2177-2199.

6. Molteni, F., S. Tibaldi and T.N. Palmer, 1990: Regimes in the wintertime circulation over northern extratropics. I: Observational evidence. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 116, 31-67.

7. Molteni, F. and S. Tibaldi, 1990: Regimes in the wintertime circulation over northern extratropics. II: Consequences for dynamical predictability. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 116, 1263-1288.

8. Palmer, T.N., R. Mureau and F. Molteni, 1990: The Monte Carlo forecast. Weather, 45, 198-207.

9. Palmer, T.N., C. Brankovic, F. Molteni and S. Tibaldi, 1990: Extended-range predictions with ECMWF models: Interannual variability in operational model integrations. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 116, 799-834.

10. Palmer, T.N., C. Brankovic, F. Molteni, S. Tibaldi, L. Ferranti, A. Hollingsworth, U. Cubasch and E. Klinker, 1990: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) program on extended-range prediction. Bull.Amer.Meteorol.Soc., 71, 1317-1330.

11. Tibaldi, S. and F. Molteni, 1990: On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus, 42A, 343-365.

12. Molteni, F. and T.N. Palmer, 1991: A real-time scheme for the prediction of forecast skill. Mon.Wea.Rev., 119, 1088-1097.

13. Buizza, R., J. Tribbia, F. Molteni and T. Palmer, 1993: Computation of optimal unstable structures for a numerical weather prediction model. Tellus, 45A, 388-407.

14. Marshall, J. and F. Molteni, 1993: Toward a dynamical understanding of planetary-scale flow regimes. J.Atmos.Sci., 50, 1792-1818.

15. Molteni, F. and T.N. Palmer, 1993: Predictability and finite-time instability of the northern winter circulation. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 119, 269-298.

16. Molteni, F., L. Ferranti, T.N. Palmer and P. Viterbo, 1993: A dynamical interpretation of the global response to equatorial SST anomalies. J. Climate, 6, 777-795.

17. Mureau, R., F. Molteni and T.N. Palmer, 1993: Ensemble prediction using dynamically-conditioned perturbations. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 119, 299-323.

18. Ferranti, L., F. Molteni, and T.N. Palmer, 1994: Impact of localized tropical and extra-tropical SST anomalies in ensembles of seasonal GCM integrations. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 120, 1613-1645.

19. Ferranti, L., F. Molteni, C. Brankovic and T.N. Palmer, 1994: Diagnosis of extra-tropical variability in seasonal integrations of the ECMWF model. J. Climate, 7, 849-868.

20. Palmer, T.N., R. Buizza, F. Molteni, Y-Q. Chen and S. Corti, 1994: Singular vectors and the predictability of weather and climate. Phil.Trans.Roy.Soc., 348A, 459-475.

21. Buizza, R. and F. Molteni, 1996: On the role of finite-time barotropic instability during transition to blocking. J.Atmos.Sci., 53, 1675-1697.

22. Molteni, F., 1996: On the dynamics of planetary flow-regimes. Part I: The role of high-frequency transients. J.Atmos.Sci., 53, 1950-1971.

23. Molteni, F., 1996: On the dynamics of planetary flow-regimes. Part II: Results from a hierarchy of orographically-forced models. J.Atmos.Sci., 53, 1972-1992.

24. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T.N. Palmer and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: methodology and validation. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 122, 73-119.

25. Brankovic, C. and F. Molteni, 1997: Sensitivity of the ECMWF model northern winter climate to model formulation. Climate Dyn., 13, 75-101.

26. Buizza, R., R. Gelaro, F. Molteni and T.N. Palmer, 1997: The impact of increased resolution on predictability studies with singular vectors. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 123, 1007-1033.

27. Corti, S., A. Giannini, S. Tibaldi and F. Molteni, 1997: Patterns of low-frequency variability in a three-level quasi-geostrophic model. Climate Dyn., 13, 883-904.

28. Molteni, F. and S. Corti, 1998: Long-term fluctuations of the statistical properties of low-frequency variability: Dynamical origin and predictability. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 124, 495-526.

29. Corti, S., F. Molteni and T.N. Palmer, 1999: Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes. Nature, 398, 799-802.

30. Ferranti, L. and F. Molteni, 1999: Ensemble simulations of Eurasian snow-depth anomalies and their influence on the summer Asian monsoon. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 125, 2597-2610.

31. Molteni, F. and R. Buizza, 1999: Validation of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system using empirical orthogonal functions. Mon.Wea.Rev., 127, 2346-2358.

32. Corti, S., F. Molteni and C. Brankovic, 2000: Predictability of snow-depth anomalies over Eurasia and associated circulation patterns. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 126, 241-262.

33. Pavan, V., F. Molteni and C. Brankovic, 2000: Wintertime variability in the Euro-Atlantic region in observations and in ECMWF seasonal ensemble experiments. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 126, 2143-2173

34. Quadrelli, R., V. Pavan and F. Molteni, 2001: Wintertime Mediterranean precipitation variability and its links with upper-air large-scale circulation anomalies. Climate Dyn., 17, 457-466.

35. Becker, B.D., J.M. Slingo, L. Ferranti and F. Molteni, 2001: Seasonal predictability of the Indian summer monsoon: What role do land-surface conditions play? Mausam, 52, Special Issue on Climate Change, 175-190.

36. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, C. Marsigli, A. Montani, F. Nerozzi, and T. Paccagnella, 2001: A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. Part I: Definition of representative members and global-model experiments. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 127, 2069-2094.

37. Marsigli, C., A. Montani, F. Nerozzi, T. Paccagnella, S. Tibaldi, F. Molteni and R. Buizza, 2001: A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. Part II: Limited-area experiments in four Alpine flood events. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 127, 2095-2116 .

38. Trevisan, A., F. Pancotti and F. Molteni, 2001: Ensemble prediction in a model with flow regimes. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc., 127, 343-358.

39. Haarsma, R., E.J.D. Campos and F. Molteni, 2003: Atmospheric response to South Atlantic SST dipole. Geophys.Res. Letters , 30 (16), 1864 .

40. Kucharski, F. and F. Molteni, 2003: On non-linearities in a forced North Atlantic Oscillation. Climate Dyn., 21 , 677-687.

41. Molteni, F., 2003: Atmospheric simulations using a GCM with simplified physical parametrizations. I: Model climatology and variability in multi-decadal experiments. Climate Dyn., 20, 175-191.

42. Molteni, F., S. Corti, L. Ferranti and J.M. Slingo, 2003: Predictability experiments for the Asian summer monsoon: Impact of SST anomalies on interannual and intraseasonal variability. J. Climate , 16 , 4001-4021 .

43. Bracco, A., F. Kucharski, R. Kallummal and F. Molteni, 2004: Internal variability, external forcing and climate trends in multi-decadal AGCM ensembles. Climate Dyn., 23, 659-678.

44. Brankovic, C. and F. Molteni, 2004: Seasonal climate and variability of the ECMWF ERA-40 model. Climate Dyn., 22 , 139-155.

45. Straus, D. and F. Molteni, 2004: Circulation regimes and SST forcing: Results from large GCM ensembles. J. Climate, 17 , 1641-1656.

46. Bracco, A., F. Kucharski, F. Molteni, W. Hazeleger and C. Severijns, 2005: Internal and forced modes of variability in the Indian Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 , L12707, doi:10.1029/2005GL023154.

47. Haarsma, R., E.J.D. Campos, W. Hazeleger, C. Severijns, A.R. Piola and F. Molteni, 2005: Dominant modes of variability in the South Atlantic: A study with a hierarchy of ocean-atmosphere models. J. Climate, 18 , 1719-1735.

48. Hazeleger, W., C. Severijns, R. Seager and F. Molteni, 2005: Tropical Pacific-driven decadal energy transport variability. J. Climate, 18 , 2037-2051.

49. Brankovic, C. and F. Molteni and P. Viterbo, 2005: GCM sensitivity experiments with locally modified land surface properties over tropical South America. Climate Dyn., submitted.

50. Coppola, E., F. Kucharski, F. Giorgi and F. Molteni, 2005: Bimodality of the North Atlantic Oscillation in simulations with greenhouse gas forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., submitted.

51. Kucharski, F., F. Molteni and A. Bracco, 2005: Decadal interactions between the western tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Climate Dyn., submitted.

52. Straus, D., S. Corti and F. Molteni, 2005: Estimating circulation regime properties: uncertainty and predictability. J. Climate, submitted.

1. Molteni, F., U. Cubasch and S. Tibaldi, 1988: 30 and 60-day forecast experiments with the ECMWF spectral models. In: "Persistent meteo-oceanographic anomalies and teleconnections", Pontificiae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia no. 69, Vatican City, 505-555.

2. Molteni, F., 1992: Atmospheric low-frequency variability and the role of diabatic processes. In "The use of EOS for studies of Atmospheric Physics" (Proceedings of the International School of Physics "Enrico Fermi", Course CXV), Società Italiana di Fisica, Bologna/North-Holland, Amsterdam; pp. 125-160.

3. Molteni, F., T.N. Palmer, L. Ferranti and P. Viterbo, 1993: The role of tropical-extratropical interactions in the maintenance of global-scale anomalies during the La Niña event of 1988/1989. In "Climate variability" (Proceedings of the International Workshop on Climate Variabilities, Beijing, China, 13-17 July 1992), China Meteorological Press, pp. 67-79.

4. F. Molteni, 1994: Towards a dynamical understanding of planetary-scale flow regimes (Ph.D. thesis). ECMWF publication, 196 pp.

5. Palmer, T.N., R. Buizza, F. Molteni, Y-Q Chen and S. Corti, 1995: Singular vectors and the predictability of weather and climate. In "Chaos and Predictability" (Proceedings of the Royal Society discussion meeting), H. Tong ed., World Scientific, London. (cf. a20)

6. F. Molteni, 2003: Weather regimes and multiple equilibria. In "Encyclopedia of atmospheric sciences", Academic Press; pp 2577-2586.

7. Molteni, F., F. Kucharski and S. Corti, 2005: On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales. In: "Predictability of weather and climate", T.N. Palmer and R. Hagedorn Eds., Cambridge University Press. In press.

1. Cubasch, U., S. Tibaldi and F. Molteni, 1986: Deterministic extended-range forecast experiments using the global ECMWF spectral model. Proceedings of the first WMO Workshop on the diagnosis and prediction of monthly and seasonal atmospheric variations over the globe (College Park, USA, 29 Jul. - 2 Aug. 1985). WMO/TD no. 87, LRFRR no. 6, vol. 2, 581-589.

2. Molteni, F. and S. Tibaldi, 1986: A lagged-average 60-day forecast experiment during the 1982/83 El Niño period. Proceedings of the WMO Workshop on comparison of simulations by numerical models of the sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation to sea surface temperature anomalies (NCAR, Boulder, USA, 9-12 Dec. 1985). WMO/TD no. 138, WCP-121, 117-123.

3. Molteni, F., U. Cubasch, S. Tibaldi, 1986: Experimental monthly forecasts at ECMWF using the lagged-average forecasting technique. Proceedings of the first WMO Workshop on the diagnosis and prediction of monthly and seasonal atmospheric variations over the globe (College Park, USA, 29 Jul. - 2 Aug. 1985). WMO/TD no. 87, LRFRR no. 6, vol. 2, 598-607.

4. Tibaldi, S. and F. Molteni, 1987: Fenomenologia e modellistica della circolazione atmosferica a grande scala: prospettive di previsione a scala mensile. Bollettino Geofisico: Aspetti della fluidodinamica geofisica italiana, 5-24 (in Italian).

5. Molteni, F., U. Cubasch and S. Tibaldi, 1987: 30 and 60-day forecast experiments with the ECMWF spectral models. Proceedings of the first ECMWF Workshop on Predictability in the medium and extended range (ECMWF, Reading, U.K., 17-19 Mar. 1986), 51-108. (cf. b1)

6. Tibaldi, S. and F. Molteni, 1988: On the operational predictability of blocking. Proceedings of the ECMWF Seminar on The nature and prediction of extratropical weather systems (ECMWF, Reading, U.K., 7-11 Sept. 1987), vol. 2, 329-371. (cf. a11)

7. Brankovic, C., F. Molteni, T.N. Palmer, S. Tibaldi and U. Cubasch, 1988: Extended range ensemble forecasting at ECMWF. Proceedings of the second ECMWF Workshop on Predictability in the medium and extended range (ECMWF, Reading, U.K., 16-18 May 1988), 45-88.

8. Molteni, F. and T.N. Palmer, 1988: An experimental scheme for the prediction of forecast skill at ECMWF. Proceedings of the second ECMWF Workshop on Predictability in the medium and extended range (ECMWF, Reading, U.K., 16-18 May 1988), 367-402.

9. Tibaldi, S., C. Brankovic, U. Cubasch and F. Molteni, 1988: Impact of horizontal resolution on extended-range forecasts at ECMWF. Proceedings of the second ECMWF Workshop on Predictability in the medium and extended range (ECMWF, Reading, U.K., 16-18 May 1988), 215-250.

10. Palmer, T.N., C. Brankovic, F. Molteni and R. Mureau, 1990: Predictability in the medium range and beyond. Proceedings of the ECMWF Seminar on Ten years of medium-range weather forecasting (ECMWF, Reading, U.K., 4-8 Sept. 1989), vol. 1, 129-158.

11. Molteni, F., R. Mureau and T.N. Palmer, 1991: Linear instability analysis and its application to ensemble forecasting. Extended abstracts submitted to the ITCP/WMO International Technical Conference on Long-range weather forecasting research (Trieste, Italy, 8-12 April 1991). WMO/TD no. 395, LRFRR no. 14, 195-200.

12. Palmer, T., F. Molteni, R. Mureau, R. Buizza, P. Chapelet and J. Tribbia, 1992: Ensemble prediction. Proceedings of the ECMWF Seminar on Validation of models over Europe (ECMWF, Reading, U.K., 7-11 Sep. 1992), vol. 1, 21-66.

13. Molteni, F. and T.N. Palmer, 1993: Predictability and finite-time instability of the northern winter circulation. Proceedings of the ECMWF Workshop on New developments in predictability (ECMWF, Reading, U.K., 13-15 Nov. 1991), 101-142. (cf. a15)

14. Mureau, R., F. Molteni and T.N. Palmer, 1993: Ensemble prediction using dynamically-conditioned perturbations. Proceedings of the ECMWF Workshop on New developments in predictability (ECMWF, Reading, U.K., 13-15 Nov. 1991), 143-174. (cf. a17)

15. Molteni F. and S. Corti, 1996: Predictability of the statistical properties of low-frequency variability: influence of chaotic dynamics and boundary forcing. Proceedings of the ECMWF Seminar on Predictability (ECMWF, Reading, U.K., 4-8 Sep. 1995), Vol. I, 305-350.

16. Molteni, F., F. Kucharski and S. Corti, 2003: On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales. Proceedings of the ECMWF Seminar on Predictability of weather and climate (ECMWF, Reading, U.K., 9-13 Sep. 2002), 333-353. (cf. b7)

d) Reports and technical publications.

1. Molteni, F. and S. Tibaldi, 1985: Climatology and systematic error of rainfall forecasts at ECMWF. ECMWF Technical Report no. 51, 91 pp.

2. Molteni, F., 1987: Empirical orthogonal function analysis of the zonal and eddy components of 500 mb height fields in the northern extratropics. ECMWF Technical Report no. 61, 30 pp.

3. Palmer, T.N. and F. Molteni, 1987: An experimental scheme to predict forecast skill. ECMWF Technical Memorandum no. 141, 13 pp.

4. Brankovic, C., T.N. Palmer, F. Molteni, S. Tibaldi and U. Cubasch, 1990: Extended-range predictions with ECMWF models: Time-lagged ensemble forecasting. ECMWF Technical Memorandum no. 153, 61 pp. ( cf. a4)

5. Ferranti, L., T.N. Palmer, F. Molteni and E. Klinker, 1990: Tropical-extratropical interaction associated with the 30-60 day oscillation and its impact on medium and extended range predictions. ECMWF Technical Memorandum no. 154, 37 pp. (cf. a5)

6. Palmer, T.N., C. Brankovic, F. Molteni and S. Tibaldi, 1990: Extended-range predictions with ECMWF models: Interannual variability in operational model integrations. ECMWF Technical Memorandum no. 151, 47 pp. (cf. a9)

7. Molteni, F., R. Mureau and T.N. Palmer, 1991: Atmospheric instability and ensemble weather prediction. ECMWF Technical Memorandum no. 177, 8 pp.

8. Palmer, T., F. Molteni, R. Mureau, R. Buizza, P. Chapelet and J. Tribbia, 1992: Ensemble prediction. ECMWF Technical Memorandum no. 188, 45 pp. (cf. c12)

9. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T.N. Palmer and T. Petroliagis, 1994: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: methodology and validation. ECMWF Technical Memorandum no. 202. (cf. a24)

10. Brankovic, C. and F. Molteni, 1995: Sensitivity of ECMWF model wintertime climate to model formulation. ECMWF Technical Memorandum no. 222, 41 pp. (cf a25)

11. Straus, D. and F. Molteni, 2003: Flow regimes, SST forcing and climate noise: Results from large GCM ensembles. COLA Technical Report no. 134, 46 pp.